The Great Indian Debate

INDIA THREATENS WORLD ORDER

The $600 billion Indian economy is set to make a huge splash on the international front. Set to expand at a phenomenal 6+ per cent in the near future (8.2 per cent in 2004) the unleashing of the Indian behemoth on an unsuspecting world has governments in the first world worried.
Not that the USA is in for an overnight coup. Considering that the USA GDP is pegged at $11 trillion (2003) it will take India quite a while to overhaul the world leader.
Having realised that their business interests are endangered, numerous agencies in Europe and USA have been commissioned to find out the nature of the threat as well as the deadline when India will start hitting them where it hurts.
From the IMF to America's National Intelligence Council which represents a number of governmental spy agencies including the CIA, to the US Chambers of Commerce representing three million companies and even England's Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown have been forced to plead with their countries' businessmen to start preparing for the "growing strategic threat' to their markets.
While India has already laid the basic foundation for its quantum economic leap, especially in the tech sector, the only thing that is acting as a weight is the fact that India does not have the money to pep up its infrastructure including electricity generation, railways, telecom and highways. In fact, India is set to drive its economic growth on the back of its technology.
Also, India's very low R&D-spend is affecting its desire to spread its wings.
The reason is not that the funds aren't there, the fact is that the money is being directed to unproductive sectors of the economy.
To get its infrastructure up to par with Asian giants like China and perhaps Japan, India needs $150 billion till the year 2015. Not a huge amount by any standards but in an era of countervailing political pressure on the decision-makers for vote garnering and lining their pockets, getting that amount from the greedy hands of the assorted politico-bureaucrat nexus will be difficult.
Anne Krueger, First Dy Managing Director at the International Monetary Fund has even gone to the extent of saying a double digit growth is possible provided Indian politicians can stop bickering and find the right mix of policies to attain that goal.
All said and done, the question in the end is not whether India will rise, the query is actually when the sub-continental giant will reach its place in the Sun.

INDIA CAN BE A SUPERPOWER BY 2050

From where we are at present, being the most developed nation by 2050 does not seem likely. For starters, we have amongst the highest rates of poverty in the world. With massive corruption, close to a third of the population living below the poverty line and a vast majority of the people without access to clean drinking water, sanitation, electricity, health care, basic education and the notion of being the most developed nation in the world appears far-fetched.
We could well end up having the largest economy in numeric terms but this does not mean the same thing as being the most developed nation.
The jewel in India's crown, at least at the moment, is the IT industry and exports and economic growth have come largely from this sector. While we have made a mark in this field, and have put ourselves on the map, we are still in the business of providing services. Though we have provided manpower to fuel development of products, systems and innovations worldwide, we do not hold patents on such technologies and have not invested sufficiently in R&D.
Domestic demand of the skills we export is low, so our risk of exposure to events beyond our control increases significantly.
A recent shift in the vision of our IT companies, as is evident from their quarterly and annual results, have been to move away from high-tech to the lower end of the scale; that is towards BPOs where the focus is on cost savings. Such cost savings may be short term as this vision is based on the exchange rate of the Indian Rupee vis-à-vis the major world currencies. While the model provides employment, both direct and indirect, in large numbers its sustainability is suspected.
Such policies are good in the short term and have helped in developing our IT industry rapidly. For the long term though, our offerings must not just be about cost savings but about tangible value.
Growth in specific sectors leads to islands of development, increasing the urban-rural divide and causing a new urban-urban divide. The only way to become a developed country is if development is across the board, across all sectors, and if the fruits of development percolate to all sections of society.
Investments must be made not just in infrastructure but also in society as economic development is sustainable only with social development. Such social development can come about only if those who are currently benefiting can look beyond themselves and their material needs and start contributing to society as well. Such contributions do not mean giving money to charitable causes but sparing time to pass on knowledge to those less fortunate without looking at "what's in it for me"?

FORGET AMERICA, INDIA CAN OVERTAKE CHINA

Now that the world has identified India and China as two of the most powerful emerging nations who can actually become strong enough to threaten the cushy universe of the First (Caucasian dominated) World, it becomes imperative to undertake a comparative view of the strengths and weaknesses of both.
While India is a democracy, created as a republic after the passing of the rule from the British in 1947, China, ostensibly a republic, wad forged on the anvil of a Communist takeover under Mao Zedong. It established a dictatorial socialist system that survives in most forms except for one marked difference, an open market system economy that is free in as much as the Politburo lets it be. This system was put in place under forward-looking leader Deng Xioping in 1978.
India on the other hand worked for almost 40 years under a socialist pattern under a democratic system that laid the foundation for its nascent infrastructure. But it was during the 1990s that a liberal economy was inaugurated and the resultant bounty is still being reaped.
In fact, continuous changes in policy pushed India to increasingly merge its economy with the rest of the world.
In fact, India has grown steadily at an average 6% since then. While India has an economy that is growing from the grassroots, China's economy's roots are not set from the individual up but from the government down.
The Chinese economy is not really demand driven, it performs/produces under strict guidelines set down by the government. The kind of position and image both enjoy in the eyes of other countries can well be imagined. Foreign investors look at China as a relatively short-term opportunity, where political or internal unrest can wipe out everything at one blow. India on the other hand offers long-term possibilities for growth, even though the returns may not be that huge in the short term.
A few parameters should clear the air
While India is just one-third the size of USA, China is almost as large as the USA. With this as the backdrop India has an irrigated land area that is larger than that of China. India is at 590,000 sq km, while China is at 525,800 sq km.
India's strength for so many years and the foundation on which industry and services sectors grow is better. It won't take a genius to figure out which direction India is heading. And although this is offset by a population that is just 200 million short of China's 1,298,847,700, nevertheless, India's median age is just above 24 years while that of China is into the early thirties. This can translate into a population that is still in its youth and thriving while the Chinese population is in middle age.
The benefits can stretch right across all parameters of the economy as the more vibrant Indian population can be more innovative, modern in thought, willing to take profitable risks, identifying the future much more accurately and a go-getter.
However, it must be remembered that India has outpaced Germany, Japan and the UK as the third most attractive place for FDI currently (from sixth earlier). India also edges in front of China in the fact that it has an educated workforce, state-of-the-art managers and a very favourable regulatory mechanism.
China's attraction is mainly a huge infrastructure and cheap labour. However, on the transportation front, India (63,140 km) comes out as a behemoth as the relatively small country has a rail network that is almost as large as that of China (70,058 km). The same disparity occurs in India's favour when it comes to highways: India's 3,319,644 km vs China's 1,402,698 km.
The same cannot be said of electricity production where India's 533 billion kWh compares infavourably with China's 1.42 trillion kWh. China also scores over India in oil production. India's 732,400 bbl/day to China's 3.3 million bbl/day. Considering that India has to import large quantities of oil and pay through its nose for imports, China is much better off by fuelling its growth with its own energy source.
But in terms of natural gas, India's production at 22.75 billion cum is good against its neighbour's 30.3 billion cum. In terms of putting all these together and showing results in terms of performance, both the nations are neck and neck with India's 8.3% real growth rate looking good vs China's 9.1%.
However, while India has a low inflation rate of 3.8%, China betters that with 1.2%. If the Indian government does not show greater frugality and puts emphasis on productive investments, the future can be a chequered one. In fact with India's public debt standing at 60% of GDP and China's being half of that managing profligacy acquires emergency proportions. India's budgetary revenues stand at $86.69 billion vs expenditures of $114.6 billion.
China on the other hand beats India hollow with $265.8 billion and reasonable expenditures of $300.2 billion. The upshot of the whole argument is that a David vs Goliath scenario emerges and while India is behind in many parameters, it scores hugely in the fact that its key sectors are outperforming China especially in the emerging IT sector, where China is a novice. While the battle will rage on for a long time India edges ahead simply because of its democratic set up against China's totalitarian one and the fact that India has read the future better and is much better prepared to profit from these opportunities.

INDIA - VS - AMAERICA -- LET THE BATTLE BEGIN

After taking cognisance of the economic threat posed by nascent tech-savvy, highly educated countries like India, the USA and the rest of the First World have initiated the process to study the danger and perhaps even take retaliatory steps.
From the CIA to the various educational institutions that act as the think-tank for the American establishment, to the mainstream media, all have moved quickly to analyse the situation. A lot of money is being spent and a huge amount of manpower and other resources are going to be dedicated to this campaign.
In fact, comparing it to preparations for a battle will not be misleading. Till date America has shown that it is capable of taking stock and then unleashing its economic might and political power wielded right across the world to bring down any usurpers to their hegemony.
Will it do so to India too?
Take a gander at what Bob Greifeld, CEO of Nasdaq said, "Our competitive countries' (India and China) research and development has grown dramatically," and went on to add that, unless the US enhances measures to hike its commitment to R&D, it will not win the global competitive challenge."
Not so very long ago, a flourishing Japan had beaten the US hollow across almost all economic indices, and yet today Japan is a mere shadow of that promise. Reason: The virtual anti-Japan crusade launched by the US to peg back the Eastern rivals ride to greatness. It saw the implementation of a number of policy initiatives across a spectrum of sectors, backed by the corporate-politico nexus that succeeded to such an extent that Japan, today, is no longer in the news as a rival. America has in fact, after beating them, co-opted them as a colleague. So much so that, Japan has been forced to hire a number of American CEOs for companies that once were leaders in their fields, be they auto majors, pharmaceutical, electrical or appliances companies.
World leaders once, hangers-on now!
The same process has now been set in motion against India, albeit it is in its infancy now. However, if India keeps making progress at the rate it is going, will the USA unleash a similar strategy against the sub-continental major?
In a modern world that still rests on the maxim of 'Survival of the fittest', India should gird up for a challenge. For, the coming years will see an America vs India face-off.

AN UNSTOPPABLE DANGER LOOMS OVER INDIA

It may look dazzling to the readers if I print that India is going to be one among the leaders of the future world, but unfortunately the proposition may sound a little overstated.

Economic growth does not put a country at the forefront of the world order, it requires much more than that. Does India possess those qualities? We should try to understand the question. A large number of analysts have discussed in detail about the poverty, corruption and moral degradation aspects, which are serious obstacle towards our progress.
Every average citizen of India is aware of the facts, but still we all hope that one day, may be one day the unthinkable will be achieved. The optimism is valuable, the growth is encouraging; but is it enough? The fact of economic progress is undeniable and a vast amount of population is benefited, but there are other stories which are nightmarish.
I am certain that the majority of the people in India are completely unaware of one of the silent killer of modern time which slowly but steadily will destroy the entire society of ours into oblivion if not immediately checked. The killer is AIDS. If serious steps are not taken immediately, all progress and growth will sound a myth to the Indian generation of late 21st century.
We have a mission to accomplish for our future generation. How do we do that? Do we have enough resources to battle the fight is to be the question our generation must answer, because that will decide our stand in the new world order. A country can become one among the leaders of our future generation only when it acquires supremacy in all sectors of progress, science & technology, economy, military and art & culture.
The history of human civilization bears the signature of this truth. But we must remember that more than the achievement, it is the power to maintain the supremacy makes a country superior. A country is tested only when it is under adversary, not when it is on the rise. Time and time great countries like Germany, England, France, Italy, United States, Russia and Japan etc. have survived the catastrophic blows and raised again to the top.
The real task will actually begin at that point of time. Will India be able to consistently withstand the vulnerability posed by the threats of enemies? Most importantly, will it be able to recover a catastrophic blow from an enemy if and when it occurs?
The blow may not be from a military angle, it may come from economic point of view, from cultural point of view, from technological point of view, or worst from all angles.
Will India have enough strength to sustain from those blows or will it succumb to the cause? The answer lies in the way we shape our future at this time of the history. But unfortunately the way our present generation is glorifying our miniscule advancement in a few sectors of progress is dangerous for our progress.
The advancement is certainly not redundant but is definitely over hyped. Moreover the key for a nation to prosper is to be critical about every achievement. If a nation feels satisfied with anything, it stops its progress. We have a duty to change that. We have a duty to let people know that the key to our progress lies under the auspice of a never faltering concept of change. We need an enormous change of our social characteristics, without that every progress will remain stagnant forever and we will loose our accountability to our future generation.
The enemies of coming year's prosperous India is invisible today but the enemy of our present progress is right in front of our eyes. The cases of HIV in India are growing in an alarming rate.
But still the social stigma is holding our tongue to declare the truth. If our society remains tight lipped against such enemy of our future generation, how do we propose to protect our imaginary future glory from the claws of unknown future enemies?
The entire story is not as dark as it appears, because there are numerous devoted individuals and organizations, who are fighting hard against all odds to confront the epidemic of this devastating disease. Unfortunately the combat is battled only at the level of the secluded society, where the epidemic of HIV is taking its highest toll. What about the rest of the society?
A society where sex is a prohibited concept, in spite of the fact that India bears a burden of a billion people, how can one go to the common people and document AIDS cases? We need big changes.
Change in our social system. We need to address the issue of AIDS and HIV from its core. The possibility of a horrific strangulation by the grasp of this epidemic, which is capable to destroy the society entirely, is kept unknown from the hearts and minds of ordinary citizens. A poor advocacy against the danger of such epidemic was primarily due to the age-old misconception and misrepresentation of sexual desire by our past and present generation.
In our society sex has become a commodity rather than an integral part of universal reproduction system. The thinkers of India need to come forward and spread the concept of sexual instinct as nature's method to create human being. It is the duty of the scientists to provide explanation about this natural phenomena and it is the duty of our social scholars to introduce to our ignorant population the real beauty of sexual instincts.
Once people understand the concept of reproduction, we can introduce the concept of safe and unsafe sex. We need to educate people, young and old alike, that sex is not a taboo in our society and we all can talk about it freely and knowledgably. Half of our work to eradicate AIDS will be done right there. The rest half is on the shoulders of scientists, doctors, film- makers and leaders.
Scientists are trying hard to bring cure to the ailment. Doctors are working to treat the patients as well as promoting the concept that AIDS is not a curse, but just a disease. It is a non-contiguous disease like many but only deadly.
Now, the filmmakers, who enjoy the maximum leverage upon the present society, needs to be accountable. They need to stop making sex a commodity. They have a greater role to play in this huge process of the nation's progress. The change is possible, the only thing we need right now is a bunch of unselfish and accountable citizens, who will not quiver under pressure.
This change in our social concept should be the first milestone to the path of our progress. No economic growth, no scientific achievement and no technological mastery can bring supremacy to a society with enormous ignorance. The epidemic of AIDS is most pronounce in the two parts of India, Bombay and in the states of Tamil Nadu.
Mumbai and its surrounding areas are among of the most economically progressive places in India. In contrast the state of Tamil Nadu seems to emphasize the concept of traditionalism to the strictest order. Therefore it is quite clear that neither economy, nor traditionalism can effectively battle the enemy of our future progress. It is probably the awareness and rational thinking that can bring us back to the path of progress.
In contrast to Mumbai and Tamil Nadu, two areas in India are keeping substantial check on the advance of HIV infections. The two are New Delhi and Kolkata. Both of these two places are considered as the cultural Mecca of India. Among the two Kolkata and its surrounding areas, where consciousness about unsafe sex has been relentlessly promoted from very early. "Sonagachi project" is one of the pioneering projects undertaken by Dr. Samarjit Jana, has already produced promising results. New Delhi has also taken innumerable measures to educate the common people by its rich political hierarchy. Kolkata is certainly among the top losers in the enormous economic growth in our country.
The economic growth in New Delhi is also not among the top. In spite of all these shortcomings in economy, these two places and many such places are able to handle the grievous situation which may completely destroy the fabric of the entire country. The growth we talk about is all superficial, because one of the major concepts of supremacy lies in innovation. We require innovation in every sector of the nation.
Dr. Jana's dream does not only attempt to eradicate HIV-infections but also wipes out the ignorance among the common people about the disease. This is a well-orchestrated innovative idea and we need to learn from it and apply similar method in other areas of our nation.
Science is another important area where the resonance of innovation is never questioned. Today scientists in the CSIR (Council of Scientific and Industrial Research) sponsored institutions are trying an innovative idea to build a bridge between traditional medicine and modern drugs.
Dr. Mashlekar, the Director of CSIR, has taken extraordinary steps to make a "Golden Triangle" between traditional medicine, modern medicine and modern science. Once Dr. Mashelkar lamented "... our own India research is invariably focused on the leftover problems of the West". It is not only in science, every sector of our modern society feels proud of mastering the leftover techniques of the west. We have an obligation to change the trend. Dr. Mashelkar has taken the measures to make a change, Dr. Jana has taken the measure to make a change.
This Is progress. Being satisfied with the flashy growth in economy will lead us to nowhere, we must take that lesson from the last year's election of Andra Pradesh. A flashy growth in technology apparently did not make any change in the society as a whole, and the downfall of one of our most promising CEO of most promising state of India. We don't want to see that happen in our bigger picture. We must stop for a while and start thinking rationally. Every part of our society needs to understand that imitating others will only produce a mass of Unorganised, unethical bunch of slobs. Imagination and innovation are the keys to reach at the top, not imitation. It is not only in science and technology, even our popular culture is growing on the residual properties of Western culture. Imitation can never build a great nation. We have to turn the trend around. We must take a vow that we must never imitate, we must never get satisfied upon our achievements on residual work of others; we have to learn to understand the intellectualism of the great nations and pave our path by our own concept. It is a great time in history where we need to look back and indulge ourselves to constructive self-criticism, a concept that Western civilizations has been using for ages to achieve excellence.
It is time that we discard the old rotten concept of our dark past and bring back the innovative concepts of long-forgotten ancestors of Mahabharata. At that ancient time (both real and mythical) when science, economy, literature, art, architecture and military were at their highest levels ever, sex was not a taboo, women were leading from the front, and India rose to the highest echelon of the world order.